Klimahysteriet fortsetter

Klimahysteriet fortsetter, men med noe lavere styrke enn tidligere. Dette til tross for at hundretusener av demonstranter nylig demonstrerte i verdens storbyer for at politikerne skulle gjøre noe med været, unnskyld, klimaet: Rekordmange demonstrerte før historisk klimatoppmøte New York/Oslo. I over 2.000 byer verden over marsjerte hundretusenvis for klimaet søndag. Samtidig er et grønt håp tent i forkant av klimatoppmøtet i New York.– I dag marsjerer jeg for mine barn, for at de kan leve i en verden der de ikke trenger å være redde for at den neste stormen skal ødelegge nabolaget deres, sier Bill Aristovolus fra Bronx utenfor New York. …

Men faktum er at det ikke har vært noen merkbar oppvarming de siste ca 18 år, og dette er i strid med de klimamodellene IPCC har lagt frem siden ca 1990.

According to the RSS satellite data, whose value for May 2014 has just been published, the global warming trend in the 17 years 9 [months] since September 1996 is zero. The 213 months without global warming represent more than half the 425-month satellite data record since January 1979.

The hiatus period of 17 years 9 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a zero trend. But the length of the pause in global warming, significant though it now is, is of less importance than the ever-growing discrepancy between the temperature trends predicted by models and the less exciting real-world temperature change that has been observed (fra en artikkel av Christopher Monckton, link nedenfor.)

Stadig flere innser dette, og derfor er det kimakonferansen som pågår i New York i disse dager en fiasko. En overskrift sier følgende: Obama's Lonely Climate Summit - World Leaders Are Staying Home. Blant de som ikke deltar er Canadas statsminister Stephen Harper, Australias statsminister Tony Abbott, India statsminister Narendra Modi, Chinas president Xi Jinpeng, og Tysklands kansler Angela Merkel. (Det er dog noen statsledere som vil være der, bla. lederne i Togo og Kirbati; de vil være der, antagelig for å be de rike landene gi dem milliarder av dollar for å beskytte dem, dvs. landene deres, mot følgene av CO2-forurensningen).

Men det er vel en trøst at folk som Leonardo di Caprio er ivrige deltagere på klimakonferansen, og han reiste vel til New York i privatfly.

Noe utvikling finnes allikevel: The U.N. has suffered a number of blows in its push for a climate agreement. Australia’s new government, for example, recently repealed its two-year old national carbon tax, and countries such as Canada, Russia, and Japan have refused to sign on for an extension to the Kyoto Protocol to combat greenhouse gases.

Men hva med den påstanden man ofte ser om at 97 % av verdens forskere mener at vi står overfor farlige, menneskeskapte klimaendringer?

Her er en oppklaring av dette fra en artikkel I Wall Street Journal: …the assertion that 97% of scientists believe that climate change is a man-made, urgent problem is a fiction. The so-called consensus comes from a handful of surveys and abstract-counting exercises that have been contradicted by more reliable research.

[One] widely cited source for the consensus view is a 2009 article in "Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union" by Maggie Kendall Zimmerman, a student at the University of Illinois, and her master's thesis adviser Peter Doran. It reported the results of a two-question online survey of selected scientists. Mr. Doran and Ms. Zimmerman claimed "97 percent of climate scientists agree" that global temperatures have risen and that humans are a significant contributing factor.

The survey's questions don't reveal much of interest. Most scientists who are skeptical of catastrophic global warming nevertheless would answer "yes" to both questions.

Spørsmålet var altså om hvorvidt «menneskelig aktivitet påvirker klimaet», og de aller fleste vil svare Ja på dette, også mange av de som mener at påvirkningen er liten eller praktisk talt neglisjerbar. Det betyr altså at det er feil å si at 97 % av forskerne mener at påvirkningen er stor eller at virkningen er farlig eller katastrofal, slik det som regel hevdes.

Vi siterer noe mer fra artikkelen i WSJ: The survey was silent on whether the human impact is large enough to constitute a problem. Nor did it include solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists or astronomers, who are the scientists most likely to be aware of natural causes of climate change.

The "97 percent" figure in the Zimmerman/Doran survey represents the views of only 79 respondents who listed climate science as an area of expertise and said they published more than half of their recent peer-reviewed papers on climate change. Seventy-nine scientists—of the 3,146 who responded to the survey—does not a consensus make.

In 2010, William R. Love Anderegg, then a student at Stanford University, used Google Scholar to identify the views of the most prolific writers on climate change. His findings were published in Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Mr. Love Anderegg found that 97% to 98% of the 200 most prolific writers on climate change believe "anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for 'most' of the 'unequivocal' warming." There was no mention of how dangerous this climate change might be; and, of course, 200 researchers out of the thousands who have contributed to the climate science debate is not evidence of consensus. …

Rigorous international surveys conducted by German scientists Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch —most recently published in Environmental Science & Policy in 2010—have found that most climate scientists disagree with the consensus on key issues such as the reliability of climate data and computer models. They do not believe that climate processes such as cloud formation and precipitation are sufficiently understood to predict future climate change.

Surveys of meteorologists repeatedly find a majority oppose the alleged consensus. Only 39.5% of 1,854 American Meteorological Society members who responded to a survey in 2012 said man-made global warming is dangerous. …

Of the various petitions on global warming circulated for signatures by scientists, the one by the Petition Project, a group of physicists and physical chemists based in La Jolla, Calif., has by far the most signatures—more than 31,000 (more than 9,000 with a Ph.D.). It was most recently published in 2009, and most signers were added or reaffirmed since 2007. The petition states that "there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of . . . carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate."

We could go on, but the larger point is plain. There is no basis for the claim that 97% of scientists believe that man-made climate change is a dangerous problem.

Luften er altså i ferd med å gå ut av klimahysteriballongen. Men et betydelig antall demonstranter mener allikevel at politikere må gjøre noe, samtidig som et stigende antall tunge politikere fra viktige land er klar over at dette er i ferd med å bli en ikke-sak. (Norske politikere er ikke i denne gruppen.)

Bare for å ha nevnt det: DLF mener at staten ikke skal gjøre noe som helst for å bekjempe den påståtte globale oppvarmingen (eller «klimaendringen», som navnet ble endret til da den forventede oppvaringen uteble). Men de som ønsker det må gjerne slutte å kjøre bil og å reise med fly for å redusere sine egne karbonfotavtrykk. Hvis de som er ivrigst virkelig skulle gjøre dette ville det neppe bli flere klimakonferanser, og dette ville i hvert fall være en god ting.
.
.
.
.
.
.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/25/the-latest-hand-wringing-myth-bust...

http://www.klassekampen.no/article/20140922/NTBO/116941964#sthash.oZGsfd...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/04/the-pause-continues-still-no-globa...

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2014/09/23/un-calls-for-all-hands-on-deck...

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230348030457957846281...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/16/obamas-lonely-climate-summit-world...

http://www.vg.no/rampelys/dicaprio-er-svaert-bekymret-for-klimakrisen/a/...

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/politically-left-scientist-dissents...

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/un-climate-summit-heats-up-in-new-yor...